Iran; Will We or Won't We?

Many readers have asked questions and expressed concern over what may or may not happen in regards to handling what is becoming an international crisis, the choice by Iran to restart a nuclear program. Here is my take on this situation.

Condi Rice

Condi has made a lot of noise over this issue, threatening the Iranian government with sanctions, stating that a “strong message had to be sent to Iran.” Here we go again, blowing smoke but having no fire to back it up with. (much like our economy, actually) Whether Condi and the Boosh administration know it or not, they do not have the power to call for sanctions. There is no FISA Court end run in the playbook for this one. They can “suggest” sanctions, but they must get several other countries to agree to this before it can be sent to the UN Security Council. This time, thank God, the other countries aren’t biting.

Boosh and the Rest of the World

“Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, shame on, well, you shouldn’t fool me twice.” As Boosh so eloquently stated a couple of years ago, it seems to be the same message that Condi is getting back from other nations regarding sanctions. What goes around comes around, perhaps? Or, as Boosh would likely put it, "What comes around goes, well, you shouldn't come around me twice." Looks like everyone else understands this one, and they aren't coming around again.

First, we have used up the goodwill of the world community. After telling so many lies to get the world behind the invasion of Iraq, the world is a bit more wary of following us down any specific path regarding Iran. In other words, this time there is no coalition. Not that you could call the forces that invaded Iraq a coalition, mind you, but Boosh has always called it that so I’ll play along. (In a previous post I mentioned the numbers of the current “coalition partners” and the numbers of troops they sent, so I won’t do it again. I'll just say, it was not impressive) France, Britain and Germany have stated that calling for sanctions against Iran is premature.

Secondly, Russia remains in talks with Iran to try to get them to comply with UN policies regarding the enrichment of uranium. They have repeatedly asked Iran for a moratorium on its activities, but Iran has thus far refused to follow this advice. However, Russia is riding the fence on this one. If it got far enough along for a vote on sanctions, Russia has stated that they would abstain, rather than voting against referring Iran to the Security Council. This is nothing more than posturing and pandering to the US. If it came down to it and they were the last country able to block sanctions against Iraq, you can rest assured that they would do so.

Next, China gets large amounts of oil from Iran. Plus, China is doing its best to finish the US as a superpower by threatening the American economy, and would absolutely block any attempt at sanctioning Iran for anything. The only way that a sanction could have any negative effect on Iran would have to include limiting their ability to export oil, and that is just not going to happen. Even if China was not openly seeking to ensure the downfall of the US, they would not support sanctions. China simply needs Iran's oil.

Britain, the US lapdog in the Iraq war, is beginning to listen to its citizens and is no longer willing to be led into another debacle like they found themselves in after following us to Baghdad. Tony Blair will be gone the first time the voters have anything to say about it, and those lining up to replace him are distancing themselves from anything Booshco as fast as they possibly can. Who could blame them? Our only true coalition partner in Iraq is not willing to have another go at it with us. Proof of this lies with the words of Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, formerly a US cheerleader. “This can ONLY (emphasis mine) be solved by peaceful means. Nobody is talking about invading Iran or taking military action.” Nobody but the USA, he really should have said.

Iran has us by the Shorthairs; There will be no Iranian war

Finally, we do not have the resources or manpower to invade Iran at this time, and won’t for the foreseeable future. Every military expert who has looked at this agrees that there is no way to solve the current situation with targeted airstrikes. We don’t know where the facilities are located, and currently have no intelligence on the ground to learn this information. The only effective way to prevent the Iranians from continuing with its nuclear program would be through a massive ground invasion, and we don’t have the capability to do anything close to that at present.

We are stuck with the usual Boosh and Condi bullshit threats, threats that we cannot back up. And, Iran knows this. Iran also knows that, although other countries would prefer that they stop the program, these countries will not go so far as to back us with troops and/or money. Our "coalition partners" learned a valuable lesson in Iraq, that Boosh and whoever he chooses to use as a mouthpiece, cannot be believed regarding world affairs. Especially those regarding economic issues or military action. They are lucky they don't live here. Then they would know that he cannot be believed on domestic issues either.

Iran has the oil that much of the world needs, and the world will not go out on a limb for this President or administration, thus risking losing access to that oil. There are indeed consequences for your actions, and Boosh is learning that the hard way. Whatever “political capital” he thinks that he gained during the ’04 election has long since been spent, and our credit has run out with our “coalition partners.” The thought of a coalition of any sort is simply another Boosh fantasy gone amok. We didn’t have a coalition in Iraq, and we damn sure won’t get one should we try to take on Iran. If the Brits, the only real partner we had in Iraq, aren’t willing to join us this time, there is zero chance that anyone else will. Plus, we can’t go it alone, no matter how much Boosh would like to pretend that we can. We can't handle the wars we are in now.

Boosh stated a good while back, “You’re either for us, or you’re for the terrorists.” Given that ridiculous statement and standard, it appears that the terrorists have a lot of friends on their side. No one should be surprised by this. After watching the actions of America over the last 3+ years, were I in charge of any other country in the world, I would ramp up a nuclear program as fast as I could. I would feel that I might need it someday soon. I would also stop taking phone calls from Boosh, or any of his representatives. I wouldn’t want anything that America had to offer me. It just might be poisonous.

Cyclone