More musings from Murph
Let’s Take a Look at the Money
I have been spending more and more time reading the economic sites referred to on LATOC and at other sites on the web. Hopefully, in an attempt to understand what is happening to this country financially, and this insane system we are trying to operate under. I am coming to the opinion that it is like a lot of the systems in our society - it has been deliberately made so complex and intertwined that even the experts don’t grasp the full ramifications of what is happening, much less being able to project accurately even a few months down the road. One example of this complexity is the official figures for unemployment. As I mentioned in a few post back, from what I have read, the actual unemployment is around 10% and not the under 5% of official figures. With the housing market going down the tubes, it is going to increase a whole bunch more too. In actuality, it appears that official unemployment figures are only composed of the number of people collecting unemployment insurance and those that have applied. One of the ways they can keep the figures from rising too much is making everything so complex that it takes an expert to do anything at all about it. That keeps a whole bunch of people employed. For many aspects of our society, as an example, it is mandatory that you hire an attorney for a variety of reasons. If we took all the tax attorneys and tax accountants and threw them out of work because the relevant codes were made very simple, the unemployment rate would bloom big time. Can’t have that now can we? Let’s keep employment higher by only having mostly less skilled or less educated people not working. Besides, it would take away the incentive to hire more high-powered lawyers to squelch law suits and find loopholes so the wealthy don’t have to pay taxes and be responsible for their actions in the market place. Not coincidentally, who makes the rules? Lawyers! Nope, it is going to get worse until these elites have absolute total control, then they won’t have to justify legally their theft, they can just say ‘get used to it’. So far, Bush and crew have done a monumental job progressing toward this very goal.
In this mixture of opposing views and analysis of economics (depending on who is spouting off today) several general principles seem to stand forth: 1. The higher the liquidity in the society (how much cash is available for use), the higher the rate of inflation (increasing relative cost of stuff, or the less your money will buy). (In terms of 1940 dollars, you dollar will buy 4 cents now). 2. Historically, any nation that engages in increasing the liquidity of the money supply in the society will self-destruct the economic system and create chaos within the society, eventually and without fail. 3. Every government that has tried to spend its way to prosperity fails eventually. 4. Every government believes that it has found the secret to avoid this (but it never has worked). In all cases every time, it is the general population that pays the price for this folly. It sure isn’t going to be the top financial people of the world. They have their private estates and islands they can snuggle down in and wait out the caused chaos.
In almost all the countries of the world, this increasing of the liquidity of the markets is taking place with a vengeance. This is especially noticeable in America. The Federal Reserve is printing money at an alarming rate to allow the government to have money to pursue its goals (like Iraq). They do this by exchanging this newly printed money for government bonds and securities (which of course have a rate of return on them). So, in effect, the government is borrowing money from a private entity (the Federal Reserve) that prints the money with nothing of tangible value behind it and charges the
This increased debt liquidity is being poured into all kinds of newly created financial entities, like bundled bogus mortgage packages and hedge funds and smoke and mirrors devices. Huge amounts of American workers’ mutual funds have been poured into the big gambling hall racket on Wall Street. In this scam, the truly rich are getting richer by making sure that wealth is being transferred to them through market manipulation. If the workers’ pension funds get lost in the process, who gives a rat’s ass? The Plunge Protection Team is there to save the rich not the middle class or the poor. According to what I read, the banks, mortgage companies, and the big players in the markets are so over extended with leveraged debt that it won’t take much of a cage rattling to bring the whole kit and caboodle down. Who gets hurt if that happens? All the people with the Ira’s, the 401K accounts, and the poor suckers that have their life savings into the markets. The really big boys in finance won’t get cut bad enough to notice.
They will do whatever it takes, even if it means increasing the heroin trade to prop up the banks and stock markets. If you haven’t been keeping up with what is happening in
Of course we have the war on drugs to oppose this, right? Wrong again. Since we have privatized the prison system making it a bottom line business, you can’t make money without having the beds filled and cells stuffed. So who is being used for the stuffing and filling? Oh my goodness, 30% of the Afro American male population in this country is either incarcerated or has been incarcerated to make money for the privatized prison system. This was accomplished by introducing hard drugs in huge amounts into the black urban areas where they were embraced (of course), with passion, as a means of making money in an otherwise hopeless economic situation. It also provided an easy way to numb a hopeless social situation, and this despite the heavily promoted few that made it out without drug addiction. We make drugs illegal (unless you’re a big pharma outfit) then distribute drugs to those parts of society least able to say ‘no’. It is a win-win situation for the capitalistic way, don’t ya think? I am sure you all have read the statistics that the good old US of A has a higher prison population than the combination of the other top five industrial countries in the world. Most of this population is from minor drug offenses. By the way, the Democrats, for years, have been sitting on their hands regarding this one. It reminds me much of how our medical system works. You first create a medical situation where a large amount of the population needs treatment; then you create the treatment at exaggerated cost and you never do address why or how the medical situation came about in the first place. Same old bullshit in a different package.
Economically, the only positive information I find circulating around is put out by the government itself or assorted chambers of commerce. It centers on what I have mentioned before: low unemployment, booming stock market. Neither of which is true and the figures have to be heavily doctored to get people to accept the statements. The very few (but increasingly larger group) that is trying to put out accurate information on the internet (seemingly the only mass media that consistently publishes this information) are starting to gain some traction. It further appears that this year has a high probability of being the year where it all ends economically. But then again, this has been predicted since the late 70’s and it hasn’t yet all come crashing down, which gives substance to the supporters of this insane system more leverage. “Wolf” has been cried too many times and it didn’t happen. But it sure looks like we are on the edge of the cliff again. While the country is being looted of every single tangible asset and a consistent increase in the poor or marginally poor is taking place, we are being bombarded with “how good it is” and, “some sacrifices are going to have to take place” propaganda. Meanwhile, the neocon supporters, wealthy and poor alike, keep screaming their invectives at those warning of doom.
I think I am going to do another post on this subject, taking a historical and analytical look at what happens when a country loses its currency. But for the time being, amid all the confusion and technical talk buzzing around at economic sites, try and understand what they are saying and what it means to us personally and the country at large. One of the more entertaining and interesting writers on the economy is Mogambo Guru with a new post every Wed at:
http://www.independencejournal.com/mogu/
I haven’t found a way to access his back issues yet, have to keep up with him on a weekly basis. (I would surely plagiarize his style of writing if I thought I could get away with it)
Follow the money if you can. Just doing that is a full time proposition with the incredible intertwining and complex system around money and who handles it.
15 Comments:
have u seen this one murph?
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/MogamboGuru.html
Palooka,
I hadn't seen him at that site before, but admit I go there very seldom. Thanks, there is a years worth of his stuff there, interesting reading.
They post it on the Daily Reckoning on the Monday after its posted on Independence Journal, so for the most updated one, read it on IJ.
There's weird stuff going on. I feel an odd wind starting to blow. I think we'll soon be looking at some odd events happening.
I'll be off to Bend to participate in an anti-war march. I have no illusions that it will stop the war, but it has to be good energetically, at least. Murph will hold down the fort and finish doubling the size of the chicken coop.
It's sunny and gorgeous and 65 degree days - best March I've ever had. Got drum and electronic bullhorn - should be a good day!
Murph,
Great post! You touched on something that I have known of for quite a while, and suspected even longer! JIM CROW WEARS A BADGE!!!!
That's right, folks! Jim Crow wears a badge, and rides through urban neighborhoods in a four-door Ford with roof-lights, devouring whomever he may!
Poll taxes are illegal! Ditto for litteracy tests! All these "Black folks" and "White trash" vote for "The Librals" We can't have that!
Here's an idea! Let's just run through the urban neighborhoods like a wolf-pack in a chicken coop! Lock up whoever we get a chance to lock up, and hold them indefinately, utill we get a confession! Won't confess to a crime they didn't commit? Want to stand up for their civil rights? FINE!! We make the legal system so complicated that a man or woman can't represent him or herself any more! That way only the rich will have justice, and the poor get to pay for it with slave-labor, (prison time), and heavy fines!
This can only happen if we keep controlled substances of ALL kinds illegal! No matter how harmless or usefull these substances might prove to be! No matter how ignorant, and arogant it is NOT consider another method! The Drug War must continue to get all these (insert derisive racial slur here) out of The White Man's governemnt!
Yep, Jim Crow wears a badge! And with that badge he clears the polls out for the Repiglicans!
And nobody seems to get it!
Oh, Stoney, the sad thing is that they do get it, and they let it happen anyway. Keeps the sicko system going. Slavery, serfdom, incarceration, whatever... gotta go to Walmart and get those goodies to put on the credit card.
Had a good time doing the anit-war rally in Bend. Probably close to a thousand people having a lot of fun. People in costumes, stilts, young ladies handing out Peace cupcakes, lots of drums. Mothers teaching their young children to clap along with the crowd. Good time had by all. Little old ladies, all dressed in pink chanting "this is what democracy looks like!!" Downtown crowd very supportive.Yea!
Stoney, you just NOW realized that Jim Crow wears a badge? LOL. Hell, down here its common knowledge that something like 2/3 or 3/4 of all cops are actives members of the KKK, the Neo-Nazis, or some other white supremacist group.
I watched the Power of Community last night. Interesting movie, but I think it was a bit whitewashed. For one thing, I didn't see a single cat or dog anywhere in the movie. Hmm, I wonder what happened to them when people where starving? (As a side note, anyone who tried to eat my animals wouldn't like the results -my pets are family. They can go plant some carrots, thank you very much.)
Murph -according to Joseph Tainter, socities collapse because they get too complex. They reach the point where additional investments in complexity yield dimenishing returns. They something happens -a natural disaster, for example -that an all ready stretched system can't handle and everything comes apart. Tainter's book, The Collapse of Complex Socities, is a must-read.
//www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Richard+Daughty
anonymous
Oneof the better financial web sites
Ras,
We do have a tendency to get attached to our pets don't we. I know I sure couldn't be blase about someone trying to eat mine.
Joe Tainter I have heard of. Haven't read. I did read a critique of his book you mention. Making an observation concerning an event, historically or in real time and then drawing one time conclusions concerning it hasn't much value. In this case concerning the downfall of society due to complexity, it is never feasable to define the extent of the complexity that defines its tipping poing. I happen to agree with the concept, but it has no value to us unless we can make fairly accurate predictions of what type of complexity and the amount to cause collapse.
I have been writing for a year now (on and off) about the cost to humans for living in high complexity societies. What I have not talked much about is the nature of the complexity, nor its causative relationship. The reason is that we really don't have much in data to deal with the subject. Every society that has collapsed, whether for reasons of complexity or not, we have really very little defining information about its complexity, so we are left with speculation, that is indeed fun to indulge in but not of particular value in my opinion.
One hears much admiration from politicians of the aggregate of prevailing values of the majority of the population. I gather that Americans tend to regard their national character as comprising such things as freedom,independence, individualism,and self-reliance. One thinks of Daniel Boone or the Marlboro Man.
In fact we no longer have these qualities and probably never will again.Generally we now embody their opposites.Modern society has become a hive of largely conformist, closely regulated and generally helpless employees who depend on others for nearly everything.The cause is less anything particularly American than the technology that governs our lives. The United States just moves faster in the direction in which the civilized world moves.
Character springs from conditions.Consider a farmer in.say, North Carolina in 1850.He was free because there was little government, self-reliant because what he couldn't do for himself didn't get done,independent because , apart from a few tools, he made or grew all he needed,and an individual because, there being little outside authority, he could do as he pleased.
All of that is gone,and will not return. Freedom has given way to an infinite array of laws,rules,regulations,licenses, forms, requirements.Many make sense,may even be desirable in a complex world,don't necessarily make for a bad life, but they cannot be called freedom.Various governments determine what our children learn,whether we can paint the shutters, who we must sell out houses to,who we can hire, what we can say if we want to keep our jobs,where we can park,and whether and how we can build an out building.
People who live infinitely controlled lives become accustomed to such control.
Obedience becomes natural.And so it has.
Although we speak of democracy,in fact we have little influence over the circumstances of our lives.All matters of importance---what values our children are taught,for example--are determined by remote bodies over which we have no power.When jurisdictions are large,the effort needed to change things that powerful lobbies do not want changed is prohibitive. And of course we vote for candidates,not for policies.Once elected, they do as they please.
Individualism has withered under the pressure of the mass media and a distaste for eccentricity.Self-reliance died long ago.We depend on others to repair our cars,grow our food, fix the refrigerator,and write our operating systems.The habit of reliance on others has reached the point that even the right of self-defense has come to be regarded as wrong-minded.
The gain is that these things are usually done better than we could do them ourselves. The loss is that we are utterly dependent on others.As things become technologically complex,the reliance on specialists grows.Almost anyone could learn to repair a flathead Ford, but today's Corolla is vulnerable only to a trained technician.Of course its a better car.
Most poignantly,we are become a nation of employees,fearful of losing our jobs.Prisoners of the retirement system,afraid of transgressing against the various governing bodies before whom we are helpless,unable to feed ourselves,we are at least comfortable.We are not masters of our lives.
Dense populations and the complexity of machines and institutions lead inevitably to regulation,which leads to acceptance of regulation and therefore of authority,which becomes part of the national character.This we see. In my lifetime the change has been great.In rural Virginia in the Sixties, you could walk down the road with your rifle to shoot beer cans,swim in the creeks without supervision and life guards and "flotation devices" approved by the Coast Guard,and generally be left alone.Now,no.Regimentation has grown like kudzu.We obey.The new generation knows nothing else.
At the moment we see a great increase in regulation in the guise of preventing terrorism.Other pretexts could have been found and, I suspect,would have been:fighting crime or the war on drugs or something.The result might have been a drift rather than a headlong rush toward control.But sooner or later,technology determines politics. The computer,not the Constitution, is primary.
I suspect that the concern about terrorism is just a particular manifestation of a growing obsession with safety.Not to long ago,Americans were a hardy breed--foolhardy at times,but the one comes with the other. Now we see attempts to eliminate all risk everywhere.Cities fill in the deep ends of swimming pools and remove diving boards.We require that bicyclists wear helmets, fear second-hand smoke and the violence that is dodge ball.Warnings abound against going outside without sunblock.To anyone who grew up in the sixties or before, the new fearfulness is incomprehensible.
The explanation I think is the feminization of society,which seems to be inseparable from modernity. The nature for masculinity is to prize freedom over security;of femininity,security over freedom.Add that the American character of today powerfully favors regulation by the group in prefe4rence to individual choice.Note that we do not require that cars be equipped with seat belts and then let individuals decide whether to use them; we enforce their use.The result is compulsory Mommyism,very much a part of today's America.
Does technological civilization inevitably lead to totalitarianism? Certainly the general fear, in combination with technology, makes a sort of soft Stalinism easy. Just now we move toward national ID cards, smuggled in by linking records of drivers'licenses.Passports,scanned and linked to data bases,provide a record of our travels.Security cameras proliferate. Some of them read the license plates of all passing cars.Email can be monitored,phones easily and undetectably tapped.Now the government is experimenting with X-ray scanners for airports that provide near-pornographic images of passengers.Whether these will be used for dictatorial ends remains to be seen.Historians may one day note that serveillance, when possible, is inevitable.
What then is the national character today? I think we are first an obedient people.We submit.We are comfortable with authority,and seem to be most comfortable when we are told what to do.We prize security, safety,and predictability.
Increasingly we accept being treated like convicts at airports and elsewhere.We want to be taken care of.We can do few things for ourselves.We expect government to decide much that was once regarded as outside of government's ambit.And we are to the marrow of our bones incapable of rising against the creeping tyranny.So much for Marlboro Man.
Fred
Fred,
My compliments on an eloquent and well-considered response. I fear much of what you say about Americans' collective character is true.
But, I think most of us who come to this fire, to sit and smoke and beat the heavy drum are square pegs who do not slide easily into the smooth bores you assign for us.
You are right to point out the lengthening shadow of Big Brother that befalls us all. Yet, we are here because we feared that approaching shade.
On another site, writers are complaining about chemtrail poisoning. They say, "look up."
Fear is a sign of intelligence.
We come here to hold one another's hands.
Peace.
Fred,
I echo Rockpickers sentiments on your comment. Very eloquent, and I also fear that in most ways you mentions is true for most of the population.
My next post is a rebuttal in a way to this bummer observation. The secrete lies to some extent in locality and the personalities involved.
I suspect that your observations are very applicable to modern urban and suburban living. How much it applies to rural life is open to question which I will cover in this next post.
Thanks for your comments. I like them.
Fred,
I really like your "character springs from conditions" concept. I, too, share your perception of the sheeple around us. Even the part about femininization.
The original women's movement took a turn for the worse when people like Gloria Steinham (CIA operative and dater of Henry Kissinger) became leaders of the national movement. They had a whole adapted child agenda that the original freedom-loving women would have never gone for. I stopped being involved back in 1978. It had gotten too screwed up by then for me. Now its consequences have become a nightmare and its products are abominations like Hillary and Condoleeza Rice. We've substituted control for choice and safety for freedom. That's become the liberal agenda as well. Disgusting.
But, I sense a new wind at our backs, when I'm not terminally depressed. I don't know if it's Divine Intervention, Gaia, or Pluto coming into Aquarius, or what, but it reminds me of the old Dylan quote, "Something is happening here and you don't know what it is, do you, Mr. Jones?"
Stay with us, Fred. Listen to the drumming of this council. There's a different beat, and it is good.
Fred,
Welcome to the council fire! I hope to hear more of you here. You seem to see things clearly.
While it is true there has a lot of "Mommyism" in the present government, Daniel Boone, and The Marlboro Man aren't quite as dead as you may think!
I too grew up in the Appalachan Mountains, and spent many a happy days swimming and fishing in the creeks, and rivers, and blasting the shit out of beer cans and bottles with what ever firearms I had, and still do!
But when my neighbor's house trailor caught fire at midnight last night, I was the first one ther, and the last one to leave! THAT is one of many things that makes the small towns and villages that still dot this country the hotbed of insurection that they still are! We love our individualism, but when the shit comes down, we come together!
Of course I still live in the little town of Saluda, North Carolina, where things move slower, and neighbors don't call the police every time they hear a gun go off!
The big city is just too big and invasive for me, and you will find most people on this site also live in small comunities where you can be yourself, and not get locked up for it.
We as, Americans are rebels, born of rebels. We LOVE life on the edge, and spend our time doing intricate tricks on bicycles, and skateboards, build hotrods, and souped-up motoecycles, and employ them to run down the road at ridiculously dangerous speeds in direct defiance of whoever says we can't!
We like rules because we like to break them! We like see just how far we can go, and go further still! We push the envelope because the envelope is a barrier, and we like to break barriers! It's what makes us Americans, and THAT'S what makes America great! THAT'S why a fifty-year-old pot-head who hasn't had a haircut or shave since the last Bush administration still hammers together out of junk wholly impractical wheeled vehicles that excede the design limits of said vehicles! Why do I do these things? BECAUSE I CAN!!! And if half the good people of Saluda, North Carolina think I'm crazy, and the other half have no doubt, then tough shit! I'm just running along the edge! I like it out here!
A British friend of mine once told me that the surest way to get an American to do something is to make a law against it! It was probably the truest statement I've ever heard!
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